Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fbb…e00b crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$44 (+5%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%23W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$97
other 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 34% -20.5%
≤30d 62 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 34% -20.5%
≤90d 62 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 34% -20.5%
all 62 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 34% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 34% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 26% -28.1%
15% -36.1% 21% -35.1%
20% -42.4% 16% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$18 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$30 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$17 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$37 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$47 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$30 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records