Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fbf…bf05 crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%59W / 41L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$29
other 18% −$2
politics 9% +$8
economics 8% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 30 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 100 +0.3% -9.2% 59% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.92 per $1 lost it wins $6.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses59 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage231d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $134 $133 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 26? Jun 17 $133 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19? May 26 $133 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $133 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $89,000 on May 13? May 19 $134 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 13 $134 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 28? May 13 $134 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $134 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24? Apr 28 $134 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $134 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 23 $134 $0 +0%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 20 $134 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 20 $134 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 13 $134 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 31? Apr 07 $134 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $133 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 28? Mar 31 $133 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $134 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $133 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 27 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 25? Mar 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $132 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 22? Mar 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 9-15? Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 12? Mar 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 6? Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 2? Mar 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10? Mar 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be another combination? Feb 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 Feb 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $134 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $134 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $134 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $133 22d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $133 22d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $134 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $133 29d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $133 29d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $133 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $89,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $134 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $134 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $134 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $134 50d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $134 50d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $134 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 54d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $133 54d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $133 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $134 55d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $134 55d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $134 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 58d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $134 58d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $134 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 65d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL No 100¢ $133 65d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY No 100¢ $133 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 71d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $134 71d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $134 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.17 · official $133.17 (match) · 231 history records