Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1F 0x1fc0…2940 other 26 markets active 4d ago coverage 124d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$94 (-33%) realized −$94 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip

Net edge-46%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate31%8W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$20

14 days−$20

30 days−$20

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-46.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	8	-42.5%	-48.0%	25%	25%	-47.7%
all	26	-40.3%	-46.0%	31%	31%	-39.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-46.0%	31%	-39.4%
10%	-51.2%	31%	-45.2%
15%	-55.9%	31%	-50.5%
20%	-60.2%	27%	-55.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -40% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -16% → late -65% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.49 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$94

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses8 / 18

Open positions0

Markets (closed)26 / 26

History coverage124d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 26 Trades

no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-99%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-04-18?	Apr 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16?	Apr 13	$10	−$10	-98%
Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-04-11?	Apr 11	$10	+$11	+106%
Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-04-11?	Apr 11	$10	+$15	+154%
Will FC Slovan Liberec win on 2026-04-11?	Apr 08	$10	−$10	-100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09?	Apr 08	$10	−$10	-98%
Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-03-14?	Mar 13	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?	Mar 04	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25?	Feb 24	$10	−$10	-100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25?	Feb 24	$10	−$10	-100%
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-02-22?	Feb 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Will FC Baník Ostrava win on 2026-02-22?	Feb 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-02-21?	Feb 21	$10	+$11	+113%
Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-02-21?	Feb 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Slovakia vs. Germany	Feb 20	$10	+$11	+115%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-21?	Feb 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14?	Feb 17	$10	+$5	+49%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-02-14?	Feb 17	$20	+$10	+50%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-02-14?	Feb 17	$20	+$21	+106%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13?	Feb 14	$10	+$6	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Feb 11	$5	−$5	-100%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden	Feb 10	$20	−$20	-100%
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia	Feb 09	$10	−$10	-100%
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada	Feb 09	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	4d
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	60d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	64d
Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-04-11?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	69d
Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-04-11?	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	69d
Will FC Slovan Liberec win on 2026-04-11?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	69d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	69d
Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-03-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	95d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	105d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	112d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25?	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	112d
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-02-22?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	115d
Will FC Baník Ostrava win on 2026-02-22?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	115d
Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-02-21?	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	115d
Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-02-21?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	115d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-21?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	119d
Men's Quarterfinals - Slovakia vs. Germany	BUY Slovakia	47¢	$10	119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$5	125d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	127d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	127d
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-02-14?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20	127d
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-02-14?	BUY Yes	49¢	$20	127d
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden	BUY Sweden	64¢	$20	127d
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia	BUY Czechia	63¢	$10	127d
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada	BUY Czechia	18¢	$10	127d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records