Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fcc…701b weather 770 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,344 (-35%) realized −$3,613 · open +$269
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%338W / 340L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day83.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$487
weather 34% +$86
other 14% +$130
politics 8% +$128
finance 4% +$187
tech 2% +$18
sports 1% −$9
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 310 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 50% +0.7%
≤30d 678 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 48% -0.7%
≤90d 678 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 48% -0.7%
all 678 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 48% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 48% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 46% -10.2%
15% -26.3% 34% -18.8%
20% -33.5% 28% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2,625
Realized−$3,613
Unrealized+$269
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses338 / 340
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions131
Markets (closed)678 / 770
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day83.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 131 History 678 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 53¢ 97¢ $181 $330 +$149 (+83%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 42¢ 52¢ $171 $213 +$42 (+24%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 46¢ 85¢ $82 $152 +$70 (+85%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 48¢ 42¢ $159 $138 −$21 (-13%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 43¢ 25¢ $128 $74 −$55 (-43%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 25¢ 90¢ $20 $73 +$53 (+266%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 29¢ 63¢ $30 $65 +$35 (+116%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 74¢ 92¢ $52 $64 +$12 (+23%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 33¢ 62¢ $30 $56 +$26 (+86%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 88¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+23%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $39 $46 +$7 (+18%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 46¢ 88¢ $22 $42 +$20 (+91%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $31 $40 +$8 (+27%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 29¢ 37¢ $31 $40 +$8 (+27%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $31 $38 +$8 (+25%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 39¢ 100¢ $15 $38 +$23 (+152%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? No 70¢ 100¢ $26 $37 +$11 (+43%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 66¢ 75¢ $31 $35 +$4 (+14%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 62¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 65¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Yes 53¢ 82¢ $19 $30 +$11 (+57%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 17? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Coast Guard event? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 20? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on May 20? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Yusuke Takahashi Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Daddy" be said on ICEMAN? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on May 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 -169%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 15? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $420 in May? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 −$1 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $29 +$8 +27%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 +116%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $26 −$9 -33%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $26 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +39%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $31 +$89 +288%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$15 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$10 +66%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$8 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$7 +43%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $193 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$8 +104%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 15 above $240? Jun 18 $15 +$10 +64%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$10 +88%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$5 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 65¢ $30 3m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 8m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 68¢ $6 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $55 35m
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 50¢ $8 40m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 20¢ $3 46m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 62¢ $3 54m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 66¢ $11 59m
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? SELL Yes 43¢ $12 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 42¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 1h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $55 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 33¢ $49 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,624.72 · official $2,622.43 (match) · 3500 history records