Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1fcd…724d
sports · 17 markets active 4h ago
4.5score
+$81 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$82 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 6 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$82
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 45¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 49¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Under 48¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $26 −$1 -5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $23 +$17 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $27 +$4 +14%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $20 +$20 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch Jun 10 $22 +$18 +83%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 09 $34 +$32 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$94
crypto 7% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 3h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 3h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $18 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $21 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $14 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 50¢ $25 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 11h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 92¢ $37 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 15h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $7 18h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 18h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 18h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $23 37h
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 62¢ $31 38h
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 39h
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $21 39h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 50¢ $20 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch BUY Yes 54¢ $22 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. SELL Yes 100¢ $65 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY Yes 51¢ $34 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +15.1% +4.1% 64% 64% +27.1%
≤30d 11 +15.1% +4.1% 64% 64% +27.1%
≤90d 11 +15.1% +4.1% 64% 64% +27.1%
all 11 +15.1% +4.1% 64% 64% +27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 64% +27.1%
10% -5.9% 55% +15.0%
15% -15.0% 45% +3.9%
20% -23.3% 45% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.67 · official $107.67 (match) · 30 history records