Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1F 0x1fd0…c6a7 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,177 (-18%) realized −$2,160 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate59%84W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days−$178
14 days−$132
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$18
other 26% −$97
world 14% −$2
politics 5% +$3
finance 3% +$8
sports 3% +$4
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +32.3% +19.7% 41% 7% -9.0%
≤30d 137 +18.0% +6.8% 61% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 143 +14.0% +3.2% 59% 5% -10.0%
all 143 +14.0% +3.2% 59% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 5% -10.0%
10% -6.7% 5% -18.6%
15% -15.7% 4% -26.4%
20% -24.0% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,489
Realized−$2,160
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses84 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions154
Markets (closed)143 / 96
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$128
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 154 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $129 $133 +$3 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $119 $121 +$2 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 98¢ $119 $120 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $119 −$0 (-0%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $119 $119 +$0 (+0%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 91¢ $120 $111 −$9 (-7%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will XRP reach $3.60 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? No 90¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 15 $0 −$1 -21850%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 15 $1 $0 -60%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will Andrew Shelley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Tim Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio? Jun 15 $1 $0 -67%
Will DNM (DEK) win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representativ Jun 15 $0 −$3 -6238%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -329%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 15 $0 $0 +8%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 15 $0 $0 -1882%
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 15 $0 −$2 -498%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 15 $0 $0 -3%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -173%
Will Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 15 $0 −$1 -297%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 15 $0 $0 -96%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 15 $0 $0 +3%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 15 $0 $0 -9%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 15 $0 −$1 -9376%
Will KOSP win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el Jun 15 $0 −$1 -2421%
Will DIPA win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el Jun 15 $0 −$4 -6640%
Will VOLT win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el Jun 15 $0 −$1 -4051%
Will David Thelen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 15 $0 −$5 -25538%
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia Jun 15 $0 −$1 -11310%
Will Susana Martinez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican prima Jun 15 $0 −$1 -7777%
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 15 $0 −$1 -7113%
Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 15 $0 −$5 -27065%
Will Saxon Callahan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Jersey Jun 15 $0 −$2 -5598%
Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 15 $0 −$22 -109196%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 15 $0 −$40 -326753%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidenti Jun 15 $0 +$7 +158127%
Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +6455%
Will Lee Jong-bae win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial e Jun 15 $0 −$3 -25094%
Will Greg Landsman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio? Jun 15 $0 $0 -225%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 15 $0 $0 -942%
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 15 $0 +$1 +5735%
Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02? Jun 15 $0 −$18 -37923%
Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -971%
Will Yoon Hee-geun win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 15 $0 −$3 -25139%
Will Danielle Bethell win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary Jun 15 $0 −$1 -2540%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 15 $0 −$3 -977%
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 15 $0 −$1 -15447%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 -1449%
Will Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -2173%
Will Kyle Freeman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Caroli Jun 15 $0 $0 -71%
Will Robert Neuman win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary ele Jun 15 $0 −$3 -8939%
Will Sharifah Hardie advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 15 $0 −$20 -40057%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 15 $0 −$4 -12422%
Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 15 $0 −$2 -15337%
Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02? Jun 15 $0 −$2 -12253%
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 15 $0 $0 +621%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $120 59m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $120 9h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $120 11h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $120 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $119 12h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $120 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $119 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 91¢ $110 18h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $119 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $119 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $120 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $119 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $119 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $120 2d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 96¢ $106 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $120 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 98¢ $120 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $119 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $119 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $120 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $119 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $120 4d
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $120 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $120 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $119 6d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $71 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $150 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,488.57 · official $1,437.30 · 3500 history records