Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fd2…f7f2 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$133 (+2%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate96%48W / 2L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$20
crypto 26% +$12
tech 12% −$101
economics 10% +$13
politics 10% +$118
world 8% +$57
culture 5% +$3
sports 3% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 9 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.2%
all 50 +6.6% -3.6% 96% 8% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 8% -8.0%
10% -12.8% 8% -16.8%
15% -21.2% 8% -24.9%
20% -28.9% 8% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$56 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses48 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage619d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $180 $180 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $111 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $110 +$5 +4%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $180 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 11 $82 +$2 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 11 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1? Apr 21 $199 +$3 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31? Apr 01 $123 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Apr 01 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 30 $160 +$1 +1%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 15 $150 +$5 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Mar 08 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $230? Feb 07 $230 +$1 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 07 $145 −$112 -77%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 04 $167 +$9 +5%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? Jan 25 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 23 $361 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? Jan 08 $354 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 7? Dec 21 $170 +$1 +0%
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater Dec 21 $178 +$2 +1%
Will a dozen eggs cost >$4.25 in October? Dec 07 $160 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 07 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 November 10-16? Nov 21 $177 +$2 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 11 $322 +$7 +2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27? Nov 11 $111 +$1 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Nov 11 $170 +$1 +0%
$YZY listed on Coinbase or Binance by September 30? Oct 17 $66 +$2 +3%
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market ca Oct 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Rabby airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 17 $155 +$2 +1%
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $26m? Sep 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 16 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on July 9? Aug 02 $80 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down on July 9? Aug 02 $234 +$3 +1%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 09 $320 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 25 $294 +$1 +0%
Dillon Danis x Gorilla fight scheduled by next Friday? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Czechia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final Jun 13 $140 $0 +0%
Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 89? Jun 13 $160 +$1 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? May 04 $10 +$6 +58%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 04 $53 +$37 +70%
Will Donald Trump sign 25-29 executive orders in March? May 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? May 04 $120 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Apr 01 $216 +$3 +1%
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28? Mar 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Feb 28 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 28 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 07 $239 $0 -0%
Coinbase top 25 app on Monday? Dec 13 $18 $0 +2%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? Nov 25 $6 +$10 +163%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $170 +$106 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $110 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $180 8d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $111 8d
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 44d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $110 44d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $200 64d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $82 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1? BUY Up 98¢ $199 83d
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $150 86d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $160 101d
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? BUY No 96¢ $150 107d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31? BUY No 99¢ $123 107d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 BUY No 100¢ $270 137d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $33 137d
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $230? BUY Yes 99¢ $230 139d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $145 139d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 150d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY No 95¢ $167 151d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 151d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $361 167d
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $354 185d
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater BUY Yes 99¢ $178 199d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 7? BUY No 100¢ $170 199d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 97¢ $200 214d
Will a dozen eggs cost >$4.25 in October? BUY No 100¢ $160 225d
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 November 10-16? BUY No 99¢ $177 225d
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27? BUY No 99¢ $111 239d
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $170 239d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $274 239d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $322 249d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.26 · official $290.26 (match) · 106 history records