Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1fd2…b7f8
weather · 317 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$16,361 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,325 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$567
Realized−$1,325
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses200 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)314 / 317
History coverage101d
Avg bet$853
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 314 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$352
14 days−$1,465
30 days−$4,606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 94¢ 86¢ $427 $388 −$38 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? No 64¢ 65¢ $95 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $62 $82 +$21 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 +$75 +134%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $119 +$61 +51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$13 -91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $387 +$35 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $417 +$21 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $405 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $402 −$402 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $761 +$53 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $56 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $701 +$55 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $735 −$14 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $800 +$54 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $275 −$152 -55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $649 +$60 +9%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $13,000 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 −$8 -46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 −$14 -67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $23 +$29 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5? Jun 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $33 +$29 +88%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $27 −$14 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $32 −$18 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $49 −$36 -74%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $19 −$6 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $38 −$13 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $31 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 −$5 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $45 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $48 −$13 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $51 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 +$17 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $50 +$44 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $36 −$27 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $45 −$9 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$3 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $9 +$83 +951%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $701 −$696 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $49 −$44 -89%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $301 −$192 -64%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $2,252 −$2,197 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $290 +$47 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$4,156
politics 5% $0
other 2% +$2,815
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $113 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $315 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $96 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $119 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $421 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $162 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $224 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $35 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $324 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $55 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $111 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $128 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $180 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $405 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $63 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 60¢ $34 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 77¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -24.6% -31.8% 48% 14% -11.2%
≤30d 73 -14.2% -22.3% 45% 16% -19.3%
≤90d 280 -4.3% -13.4% 62% 25% -10.4%
all 314 -4.1% -13.2% 64% 26% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 26% -10.0%
10% -21.5% 14% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here -29.1% 10% -26.4%
20% -36.1% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $566.80 · official $566.80 (match) · 3500 history records