Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1fd7…f34a other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$164 (+48%) realized +$221 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$393
7 days+$223
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$154
crypto 30% −$100
sports 24% +$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+60.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +121.4% +100.3% 25% 25% +82.0%
≤30d 5 +77.1% +60.2% 20% 20% +43.0%
≤90d 5 +77.1% +60.2% 20% 20% +43.0%
all 5 +77.1% +60.2% 20% 20% +43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +60.2% 20% +43.0%
10% +44.9% 20% +29.3%
15% +30.9% 20% +16.8%
20% +18.1% 20% +5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$393 vs −$57 · ×6.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$221
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-95%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 +$393 +785%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $34 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 18h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 6d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 36¢ $61 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.46 · official $1.46 (match) · 8 history records