trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 33% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 25% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 25% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 22 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 45% | 9% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.9% | 9% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -16.7% | 0% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -24.7% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -32.1% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 19 | $48 | −$5 | -9% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $89 | +$4 | +4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 05 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 04 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $35 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 30 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | May 27 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after | Dec 15 | $9 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? | Jun 07 | $8 | +$1 | +17% |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Jun 06 | $7 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 05 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| Trump signs national abortion ban? | Apr 12 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 11 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in March? | Mar 18 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on February | Mar 04 | $8 | +$1 | +9% |