Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0

score

1F 0x1fd8…7749 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover

! high turnover

Total PnL +$19,091 (+36%) realized +$20,782 · open −$1,691

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR49%break-even

Win rate49%19W / 20L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$1,116per market

Trades / day8.7pace

Fees−$716est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$3,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$13,057

7 days+$21,205

14 days+$19,189

30 days+$18,788

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +49%

net ROI/market (all)+50.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	29	+84.5%	+66.9%	55%	55%	+30.8%
≤30d	39	+66.5%	+50.6%	49%	49%	+21.3%
≤90d	39	+66.5%	+50.6%	49%	49%	+21.3%
all	39	+66.5%	+50.6%	49%	49%	+21.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.7 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+50.6%	49%	+21.3%
10% ← realistic here	+36.2%	49%	+9.7%
15%	+23.1%	41%	-0.9%
20%	+11.0%	38%	-10.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +66% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,727) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +25% → late +106% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,676 vs −$653 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage

Net worth$3,191

Realized+$20,782

Unrealized−$1,691

Win rate (resolved)49%

Wins / losses19 / 20

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$716

Open positions8

Markets (closed)39 / 47

History coverage23d

Avg bet$1,116

Trades / day8.7

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 39 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5)	France	57¢	44¢	$2,000	$1,526	−$474 (-24%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	Under	4¢	14¢	$200	$725	+$525 (+262%)
Spread: France (-3.5)	France	36¢	16¢	$1,000	$452	−$548 (-55%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq?	Yes	28¢	27¢	$400	$384	−$16 (-4%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$500	$83	−$417 (-83%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+14%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5	Under	2¢	0¢	$200	$5	−$195 (-97%)
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$571	$4	−$568 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$1,078	+$2,361	+219%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 22	$2,117	−$2,050	-97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 22	$122	−$120	-98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt?	Jun 22	$60	−$60	-100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	Jun 22	$2,577	+$3,820	+148%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$208	−$200	-96%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 21	$2,053	+$1,927	+94%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$2,046	+$1,525	+74%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$1,032	−$1,000	-97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$431	−$416	-97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$207	−$200	-96%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$1,034	+$3,420	+331%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 21	$1,017	+$316	+31%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$1,027	+$1,298	+126%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$2,038	+$819	+40%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 21	$3,034	+$3,407	+112%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$1,106	−$1,100	-100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	Jun 21	$693	−$690	-100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$1,020	+$861	+84%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$1,033	−$1,000	-97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1,033	+$2,906	+281%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 20	$1,025	+$936	+91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$2,045	+$1,345	+66%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	Jun 20	$1,031	−$1,000	-97%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	Jun 19	$433	−$419	-97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$1,786	−$1,727	-97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$5,083	+$1,327	+26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$3,414	+$3,382	+99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 19	$2,063	+$1,537	+74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$715	−$700	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$1,415	+$377	+27%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$818	−$800	-98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 11	$103	+$195	+188%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$804	−$782	-97%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 11	$520	−$106	-20%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 11	$104	−$100	-96%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 11	$104	−$100	-96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02?	Jun 02	$504	+$80	+16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$491	−$481	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	28¢	$413	46m
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	59m
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	2¢	$99	59m
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	4¢	$80	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	4¢	$4	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	4¢	$2	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	4¢	$14	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	4¢	$0	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	4¢	$3	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	4¢	$0	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	4¢	$93	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	4¢	$4	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	4¢	$0	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	2¢	$7	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	2¢	$13	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	2¢	$41	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	2¢	$41	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	2¢	$37	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	2¢	$41	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	2¢	$1	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	2¢	$20	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	2¢	$0	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	2¢	$0	1h
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	21¢	$487	1h
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	57¢	$2,046	1h
Spread: France (-3.5)	BUY France	37¢	$514	3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	5¢	$50	3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	5¢	$37	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,191.48 · official $3,197.91 (match) · 228 history records