Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fd8…330f crypto 22 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$47 (+9%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -19.9% -27.5% 32% 23% -5.7%
≤30d 22 -19.9% -27.5% 32% 23% -5.7%
≤90d 22 -19.9% -27.5% 32% 23% -5.7%
all 22 -19.9% -27.5% 32% 23% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 23% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 23% -14.7%
15% -40.8% 23% -23.0%
20% -46.6% 23% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$10 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$11 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $37 −$24 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$11 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$12 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$42 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$51 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$48 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +65%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 26 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$6 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $13 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $27 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $26 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $38 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $41 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $109 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $19 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records