Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1fd8…4208 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$395 (-10%) realized −$371 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%26W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$7
14 days−$26
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$395
politics 32% $0
other 21% −$4
economics 10% +$33
sports 4% −$20
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 42% -11.8%
≤30d 31 -13.7% -22.0% 45% 39% -15.4%
≤90d 32 -12.8% -21.1% 47% 41% -12.4%
all 62 -23.8% -31.0% 42% 34% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 34% -18.2%
10% -37.6% 29% -26.0%
15% -43.7% 27% -33.1%
20% -49.2% 19% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$371
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses26 / 36
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)62 / 67
History coverage243d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 44¢ 46¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 85¢ 41¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$1 -5%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $10 −$1 -5%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $71 −$11 -15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $8 −$7 -90%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $98 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 27 $88 +$13 +15%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 20 $28 −$20 -73%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 12 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Mar 02 $30 +$1 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 24 $30 +$15 +51%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 02 $67 +$33 +49%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $106 +$44 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 13? Nov 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 10? Nov 11 $86 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 4? Nov 04 $88 −$88 -100%
XRP Up or Down on November 2? Nov 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down on November 2? Nov 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 1? Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down on November 1? Nov 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down on October 31? Nov 01 $100 +$56 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 31? Oct 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $36 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 59¢ $5 22h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Iraq 44¢ $5 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 22¢ $5 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 40¢ $5 22h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 55¢ $5 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Senegal 77¢ $5 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 78¢ $5 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 23¢ $5 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $5 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $5 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $5 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $5 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 36h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.59 · official $95.59 (match) · 153 history records