Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fdc…c3d5 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86 (-21%) realized −$90 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$8
other 45% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-68.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -65.4% -68.7% 22% 22% -43.8%
≤30d 9 -65.4% -68.7% 22% 22% -43.8%
≤90d 9 -65.4% -68.7% 22% 22% -43.8%
all 9 -65.4% -68.7% 22% 22% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.7% 22% -43.8%
10% -71.7% 22% -49.1%
15% -74.4% 11% -54.0%
20% -76.9% 11% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$29 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $96 +$50 +52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$15 -73%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$16 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 28h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $132 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $67 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.80 · official $53.80 (match) · 20 history records