Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fdf…3b6c world 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,916 (+2%) realized +$1,936 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%40W / 67L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$737per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$269est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,647
7 days+$4,831
14 days+$4,831
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$475
sports 19% +$3,595
other 13% −$1,121
crypto 4% −$3,586
finance 4% +$1,435
politics 2% +$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.1% -8.6% 47% 47% +17.7%
≤30d 41 -1.7% -11.1% 41% 39% -9.4%
≤90d 90 +5.8% -4.3% 40% 39% -8.0%
all 107 +7.9% -2.4% 37% 36% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 36% -7.9%
10% -11.7% 32% -16.7%
15% -20.3% 31% -24.8%
20% -28.1% 29% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$730) neutral
Persistence
early +20% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$550 vs −$311 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$1,936
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses40 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$269
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage116d
Avg bet$737
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$124 -61%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $459 −$221 -48%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$320 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $505 −$404 -80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $505 −$468 -93%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 +$603 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $407 −$400 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $325 +$347 +107%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $999 +$970 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$160 -32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $504 −$500 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$181 +89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $500 −$284 -57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $1,090 +$634 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $6,394 +$3,061 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $1,638 +$687 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,127 −$35 -3%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $407 −$400 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $359 −$229 -64%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $300 −$145 -48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 01 $355 +$886 +250%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,589 −$3,567 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $3,737 +$2,851 +76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $5,082 +$287 +6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $2,884 −$121 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $4,320 −$1,037 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $2,100 +$222 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 28 $2,082 −$427 -20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $4,067 −$2,997 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 28 $2,979 −$1,014 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $5,357 −$577 -11%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $1,163 +$619 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $1,712 −$853 -50%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 27 $1,133 +$190 +17%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 27 $690 −$331 -48%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $200 −$122 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,222 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,510 +$1,075 +71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $1,780 +$296 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $199 −$54 -27%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $60 −$18 -29%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 18 $500 −$268 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $574 −$360 -63%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $388 −$379 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 06 $200 −$67 -33%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $110 −$110 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $885 −$567 -64%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $244 +$371 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $79 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $224 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $153 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $203 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $93 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $37 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $505 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $508 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $407 27h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $672 27h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $122 27h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $999 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $346 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $504 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 44¢ $102 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $384 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $216 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,724 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $500 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $9,455 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,221 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,090 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.99 · official $44.99 (match) · 452 history records