Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fe1…6a76 crypto 684 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate74%509W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$43
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 266 -0.4% -9.9% 76% 76% -10.6%
≤30d 684 -1.1% -10.5% 74% 59% -10.8%
≤90d 684 -1.1% -10.5% 74% 59% -10.8%
all 684 -1.1% -10.5% 74% 59% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 59% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 57% -19.4%
15% -26.9% 2% -27.2%
20% -34.1% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses509 / 175
Open positions0
Markets (closed)684 / 684
History coverage25d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 684 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$7 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.75 · official $5.75 (match) · 1569 history records