Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fe4…d0f1 sports 437 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,311 (+5%) realized +$7,331 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%257W / 172L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$986est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$10,220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$838
7 days−$838
14 days−$2,684
30 days−$731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$5,592
other 9% +$744
tech 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 131 +0.3% -9.2% 53% 53% -11.5%
≤90d 321 +5.9% -4.2% 61% 60% -1.4%
all 429 +2.7% -7.1% 60% 58% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 58% -5.3%
10% -16.0% 51% -14.3%
15% -24.1% 41% -22.6%
20% -31.5% 30% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$222 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$10,220
Realized+$7,331
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses257 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$986
Open positions8
Markets (closed)429 / 437
History coverage161d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 429 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season T1 Academy 37¢ 36¢ $238 $235 −$3 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $15 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-45%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $851 −$838 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,070 −$1,059 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $795 −$795 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $310 −$310 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,339 +$531 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $345 −$339 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $245 −$242 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 09 $673 +$368 +55%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $515 +$1,596 +310%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,701 +$991 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $1,417 +$483 +34%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $595 −$582 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $111 +$56 +51%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $30 +$13 +43%
Set Handicap: Huesler (-1.5) vs Onclin (+1.5) Jun 07 $46 +$35 +74%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $621 −$612 -98%
Map Handicap: ARC (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5) Jun 05 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 05 $76 +$42 +56%
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 05 $231 −$157 -68%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 05 $105 −$104 -99%
Map Handicap: OXUJI (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 05 $57 −$56 -98%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 04 $445 −$439 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $299 −$293 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 03 $26 +$19 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 03 $22 +$23 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $26 +$19 +73%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $10 +$10 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 03 $25 +$19 +76%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 03 $112 +$96 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 03 $300 +$202 +67%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualif Jun 03 $33 +$79 +238%
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Parry Jun 03 $205 −$205 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry Jun 03 $652 −$652 -100%
Prostejov: Maxim Mrva vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 03 $37 −$37 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 03 $212 +$126 +60%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 03 $37 −$37 -100%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 03 $38 −$38 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $182 −$182 -100%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 03 $71 +$75 +105%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) Jun 03 $748 +$460 +62%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) Jun 03 $133 −$133 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $977 +$211 +22%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs QUINTESSÊNCIA (BO3) - Gamers Clu Jun 03 $108 −$108 -100%
Tyler: Fajing Sun vs Andre Ilagan Jun 03 $171 +$148 +86%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $618 +$453 +73%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $55 +$132 +238%
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5) Jun 03 $660 −$660 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 03 $205 −$202 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY T1 Academy 37¢ $243 1h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 46¢ $851 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $1,070 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $1,339 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $345 12d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Vitality 54¢ $245 12d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $371 13d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $5 13d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $14 13d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $283 13d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 24¢ $515 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $2,701 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 23¢ $595 15d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America BUY Fluxo W7M 66¢ $55 15d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America BUY Fluxo W7M 66¢ $55 15d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Virtus.pro 70¢ $30 16d
Set Handicap: Huesler (-1.5) vs Onclin (+1.5) BUY Onclin 57¢ $46 16d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 48¢ $621 16d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 60¢ $795 17d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 74¢ $1,417 17d
Map Handicap: ARC (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5) BUY ARCRED 38¢ $35 17d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St BUY ARCRED 64¢ $76 17d
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play SELL ZOTIX 11¢ $18 17d
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play SELL ZOTIX 15¢ $3 17d
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play SELL ZOTIX 23¢ $1 17d
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play SELL ZOTIX 22¢ $3 17d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 18d
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play SELL ZOTIX 32¢ $1 18d
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play SELL ZOTIX 32¢ $31 18d
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play SELL ZOTIX 35¢ $18 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,220.46 · official $10,220.28 (match) · 1324 history records