trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -22.8% | -30.1% | 55% | 55% | -5.4% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -28.6% | -35.4% | 50% | 50% | -34.9% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -28.6% | -35.4% | 50% | 50% | -34.9% |
| all | 14 | -28.6% | -35.4% | 50% | 50% | -34.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -35.4% | 50% | -34.9% |
| 10% | -41.6% | 43% | -41.1% |
| 15% | -47.2% | 21% | -46.8% |
| 20% | -52.4% | 7% | -52.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $50 | $45 | −$5 (-9%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $20 | $17 | −$3 (-16%) |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 52¢ | $15 | $16 | +$1 (+7%) |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 32¢ | $16 | $6 | −$10 (-61%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET | Jun 22 | $5 | +$1 | +19% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | Jun 22 | $56 | +$21 | +38% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET | Jun 22 | $25 | +$8 | +33% |
| Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 | Jun 22 | $3 | −$3 | -95% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 22 | $15 | −$14 | -91% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET | Jun 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET | Jun 22 | $31 | +$9 | +29% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | Jun 22 | $25 | +$8 | +33% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | Jun 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? | Jun 19 | $10 | +$8 | +82% |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? | Jun 16 | $15 | −$14 | -97% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $20 | +$10 | +50% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Jun 13 | $103 | −$103 | -100% |