Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fec…c4b6 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%35W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$4
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$19
other 28% −$6
sports 10% −$12
politics 8% +$4
tech 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 32 -2.6% -11.9% 38% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 65 -1.4% -10.8% 35% 5% -9.4%
all 127 -1.7% -11.0% 28% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses35 / 92
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)127 / 130
History coverage283d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 69¢ 68¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 91¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 45¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $93 +$1 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $90 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $92 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $95 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $168 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $8 −$1 -12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $196 −$3 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $97 −$4 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $154 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $186 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $143 +$22 +16%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $80 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $161 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $108 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $76 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $75 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $3 $0 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $139 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $88 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $184 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $82 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $88 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $94 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $187 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $87 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $18 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $30 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $84 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $171 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $93 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $85 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $85 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $96 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $69 12h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $27 12h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $96 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $3 37h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $90 45h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $90 47h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $42 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $45 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $50 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $55 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $86 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $7 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $84 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $93 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $6 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $88 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $16 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $78 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $104 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.17 · official $95.22 (match) · 568 history records