Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1F 0x1fed…edde other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$64 (+10%) realized +$69 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%29W / 20L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$141
14 days+$135
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$22
sports 43% +$100
politics 4% −$25
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +58.2% +43.1% 63% 63% +49.0%
≤30d 37 +36.0% +23.0% 57% 57% +29.8%
≤90d 49 +26.8% +14.7% 59% 59% +16.3%
all 49 +26.8% +14.7% 59% 59% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 59% +16.3%
10% +3.8% 53% +5.2%
15% -6.3% 49% -5.0%
20% -15.5% 39% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses29 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage52d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Something 15¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$40 +784%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$17 +52%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$5 +89%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 $0 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$6 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $53 −$30 -57%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$17 +165%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $8 +$8 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +41%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 +$14 +98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 +$8 +123%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +194%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $14 +$64 +468%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $46 +$32 +70%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $30 −$24 -82%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 13 $6 −$5 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3 +$1 +39%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3 +$2 +52%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 +$4 +86%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $24 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 5h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $10 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $3 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 20¢ $21 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $4 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $15 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $15 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $15 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 31h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $2 31h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 31h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 31h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $8 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.00 · official $118.01 (match) · 117 history records