Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fed…1000 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$3
politics 12% $0
other 10% +$4
sports 5% $0
culture 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 47% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -0.5% -9.9% 41% 0% -9.7%
all 43 +3.7% -6.2% 49% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 5% -9.4%
10% -15.2% 2% -18.0%
15% -23.4% 2% -26.0%
20% -30.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage296d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $77 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $76 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $8 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $146 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $71 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $65 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $72 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $151 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $59 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $26 −$3 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $60 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in September? Nov 14 $2 +$4 +160%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Oct 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 19 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $23 +$1 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 27 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $41 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $54 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $22 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $77 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $2 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $76 25h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $39 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $4 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $33 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $76 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $32 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $29 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $11 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $35 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $35 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 294 history records