Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fee…ed5e politics 57 markets active 4d ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$134,500 (+13%) realized +$56,273 · open +$78,227
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%26W / 11L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$18,267per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$349,138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$30,072
14 days−$26,716
30 days−$19,941
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% +$178,290
world 19% +$18,811
other 15% −$89,305
economics 1% +$9,739
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +121.9% +100.8% 83% 83% -40.9%
≤30d 13 +131.5% +109.5% 85% 77% -21.5%
≤90d 37 +43.4% +29.8% 70% 57% -3.7%
all 37 +43.4% +29.8% 70% 57% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.8% 57% -3.7%
10% +17.4% 38% -12.9%
15% ← realistic here +6.0% 38% -21.3%
20% -4.4% 30% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$27,511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +111% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
29.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,993 vs −$10,592 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$349,138
Realized+$56,273
Unrealized+$78,227
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses26 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)37 / 57
History coverage82d
Avg bet$18,267
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 60¢ 99¢ $122,415 $200,582 +$78,167 (+64%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 82¢ 100¢ $35,307 $42,944 +$7,636 (+22%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 42¢ $21,331 $19,894 −$1,437 (-7%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 72¢ 99¢ $12,541 $17,269 +$4,729 (+38%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $13,013 $16,790 +$3,777 (+29%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 79¢ 82¢ $15,279 $15,956 +$677 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $10,159 $10,609 +$450 (+4%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 79¢ 80¢ $9,250 $9,426 +$176 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $2,854 $2,641 −$213 (-7%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 41¢ 88¢ $1,073 $2,330 +$1,258 (+117%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 47¢ 44¢ $2,301 $2,178 −$122 (-5%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? No 71¢ $6,716 $132 −$6,585 (-98%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 10¢ $7,900 $124 −$7,775 (-98%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 62¢ $713 $18 −$695 (-97%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $769 $12 −$756 (-98%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? Yes 10¢ $43 $10 −$33 (-77%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $702 $6 −$696 (-99%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 6% and 9%? Yes 70¢ $296 $4 −$292 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? Yes $39 $4 −$35 (-90%)
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $72,811 −$71,820 -99%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $462 +$500 +108%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $5,215 +$16,221 +311%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $8,570 +$24,655 +288%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $229 +$46 +20%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $313 +$326 +104%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 08 $209 +$185 +88%
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? Jun 08 $87 +$763 +879%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $1,269 +$555 +44%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 05 $4,507 +$1,943 +43%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 03 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $27,522 +$3,551 +13%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $31,041 +$3,223 +10%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? May 16 $8,039 +$8,522 +106%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? May 16 $12,326 +$13,956 +113%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 16 $15,880 +$14,335 +90%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 16 $27,776 +$10,844 +39%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by less than 20%Ana May 15 $82 +$17 +21%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 20% and May 15 $1,364 +$285 +21%
Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02? May 14 $5,932 +$9,739 +164%
Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02? May 14 $8,341 +$9,067 +109%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $30,869 +$1,157 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 03 $181,977 +$15,034 +8%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 23 $688 −$688 -100%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $33,328 −$32,611 -98%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass? Apr 21 $896 −$892 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 16 $87,559 +$4,071 +5%
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? Apr 14 $23,490 +$1,598 +7%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $4,211 −$2,127 -50%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 12 $8,907 −$8,059 -90%
Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi Apr 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Apr 12 $153 −$153 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 31 $44,112 +$6,901 +16%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $44,677 +$8,317 +19%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $72,811 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $2,675 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 85¢ $57 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $260 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $59 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $30 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $273 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $24 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $7 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $1,783 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $456 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $80 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $656 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $36 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $71 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $160 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $437 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $1,065 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $38 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $85 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $70 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $1,101 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $48 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $536 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $128 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $217 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349,138.12 · official $349,138.12 (match) · 2020 history records