Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1ff2…93a4 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate15%15W / 85L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$2
politics 17% −$2
economics 5% $0
sports 5% +$46
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 +3.2% -6.7% 11% 9% -9.4%
all 100 +6.6% -3.6% 15% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 13% -9.2%
10% -12.8% 12% -17.8%
15% -21.2% 11% -25.8%
20% -29.0% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×10.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses15 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage94d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $56 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $141 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $409 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $242 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $239 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $462 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $110 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $257 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $451 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $101 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $228 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $332 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $113 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $102 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 5h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $56 8d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $16 11d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $15 12d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 19d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 19d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 20d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 28d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 29d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $13 29d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $13 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $26 30d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 31d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 33d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 34d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.74 · official $78.74 (match) · 270 history records