Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:20:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1ff2…0382 politics 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$1
politics 26% $0
world 22% −$2
culture 8% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 36 -1.6% -11.0% 22% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage302d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $9 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $3 $0 -3%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $3 $0 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $2 $0 -12%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Sep 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 29 $1 $0 +21%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 28 $66 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 28 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 25 $7 +$4 +50%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $26 22m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $15 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $15 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $26 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $7 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $1 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $31 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $7 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $23 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $31 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 25d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 293d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records