Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1F 0x1ff8…b4cb crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$45 (-3%) realized −$46 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate60%9W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$81per market

Trades / day45.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-16.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-7.2%	-16.1%	60%	47%	-16.8%
≤30d	15	-7.2%	-16.1%	60%	47%	-16.8%
≤90d	15	-7.2%	-16.1%	60%	47%	-16.8%
all	15	-7.2%	-16.1%	60%	47%	-16.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover45.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-16.1%	47%	-16.8%
10% ← realistic here	-24.1%	20%	-24.8%
15%	-31.4%	13%	-32.1%
20%	-38.2%	0%	-38.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -6% → late -8% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$42 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.59 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$6

Realized−$46

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses9 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$81

Trades / day45.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	90¢	100¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 16	$204	+$38	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$10	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$2	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$1	-15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 16	$25	+$2	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Jun 16	$204	−$99	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 16	$102	+$19	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 16	$128	−$12	-10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$6	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$10	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 16	$103	−$73	-71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 16	$103	−$64	-62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 16	$102	+$19	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 16	$204	+$44	+21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$5	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$137	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	SELL Up	83¢	$36	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	SELL Down	67¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	SELL Up	32¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	SELL Down	44¢	$60	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	SELL Down	32¢	$45	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$121	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	SELL Up	51¢	$19	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$23	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$55	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	SELL Down	48¢	$19	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.53 · official $4.75 (match) · 45 history records