Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1ffb…6dad other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$293 (-30%) realized −$293 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$156
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$66
crypto 42% −$190
sports 13% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -49.0% -53.9% 38% 38% -37.0%
≤30d 8 -49.0% -53.9% 38% 38% -37.0%
≤90d 8 -49.0% -53.9% 38% 38% -37.0%
all 10 -47.4% -52.4% 40% 40% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.4% 40% -43.3%
10% -57.0% 20% -48.7%
15% -61.2% 0% -53.7%
20% -65.0% 0% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$74 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$293
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage121d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$10 +32%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 −$27 -66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $130 +$16 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $121 +$36 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 02 $190 +$34 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $70 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $130 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3? BUY No 82¢ $224 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY No 85¢ $190 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.74 · official $90.74 (match) · 20 history records