Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1ffc…5e4f
other · 8 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$7 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage45d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 2 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 05 $4 +$2 +51%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 22 $2 +$1 +24%
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Dane Sweeny May 19 $1 +$1 +57%
Magic vs. Pistons May 08 $2 +$1 +29%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 01 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$5
sports 33% −$5
tech 18% +$1
world 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 8d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 66¢ $4 21d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 80¢ $2 26d
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Dane Sweeny BUY Mark Lajal 63¢ $1 37d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 77¢ $2 43d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 61¢ $6 43d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +44.1% +30.4% 100% 100% +29.5%
≤90d 6 -6.5% -15.4% 67% 67% -41.9%
all 6 -6.5% -15.4% 67% 67% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 67% -41.9%
10% -23.5% 67% -47.5%
15% -30.9% 33% -52.5%
20% -37.6% 33% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.09 · official $9.09 (match) · 12 history records