Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1F 0x1fff…89e9 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$259 (+8%) realized +$260 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$62
sports 16% +$223
world 6% −$56
crypto 2% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +71.2% +54.9% 54% 54% -4.3%
≤30d 24 +71.2% +54.9% 54% 54% -4.3%
≤90d 24 +71.2% +54.9% 54% 54% -4.3%
all 24 +71.2% +54.9% 54% 54% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.9% 54% -4.3%
10% +40.1% 46% -13.4%
15% +26.5% 42% -21.8%
20% +14.1% 38% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +148% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$63 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$260
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage5d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ 47¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $53 +$123 +231%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $46 −$37 -80%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $110 −$9 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $231 −$10 -4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $118 −$24 -20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 −$170 -83%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +69%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$36 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $48 +$26 +53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $504 +$95 +19%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$36 -88%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$45 +30%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $178 −$56 -32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$43 +42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 +$200 +98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $353 −$253 -72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $162 +$117 +72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $68 +$66 +98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $222 +$46 +21%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$47 +1519%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $112 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $107 5h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $101 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $161 11h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $90 11h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 11h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $177 11h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 11h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 11h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 12h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $60 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $231 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $110 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $34 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 16h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $35 17h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $83 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $73 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $48 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $241 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.71 · official $214.71 (match) · 85 history records