Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:01:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2000…6275 crypto 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,431 (-16%) realized −$6,431 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%39W / 88L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$1,107est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$458
7 days−$458
14 days−$458
30 days−$3,357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$7,395
crypto 10% −$494
other 1% −$383
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -53.3% -57.7% 29% 14% -65.4%
≤30d 28 -38.4% -44.3% 32% 29% -55.0%
≤90d 123 -19.7% -27.4% 31% 30% -29.0%
all 127 -20.6% -28.2% 31% 30% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 30% -29.6%
10% -35.0% 25% -36.4%
15% -41.3% 20% -42.5%
20% -47.1% 14% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$161 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses39 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage100d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $62 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $207 −$95 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $128 +$3 +2%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $126 −$126 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $263 −$263 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $105 −$62 -59%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $529 −$516 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $702 +$21 +3%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $702 −$687 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 27 $104 +$108 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 27 $176 −$170 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 27 $70 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 26 $42 +$50 +121%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $298 −$290 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 25 $104 +$136 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 25 $155 +$44 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 25 $103 −$72 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 25 $186 +$38 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $1,292 −$538 -42%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $1,688 +$209 +12%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $674 −$361 -54%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $528 −$520 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $1,094 −$1,069 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $1,201 −$165 -14%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $347 +$611 +176%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $923 −$94 -10%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $780 −$394 -50%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $337 −$89 -26%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $797 −$265 -33%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $314 +$71 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 14 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 14 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 14 $113 +$35 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 14 $42 +$158 +376%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $3,358 −$1,222 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 14 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 14 $104 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 14 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 14 $26 −$1 -2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $387 −$75 -19%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $346 −$338 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $118 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $128 8h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $65 17h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $31 17h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $12 17h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $14 17h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $4 17h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 15¢ $160 7d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 21¢ $102 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $40 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 10¢ $113 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 14¢ $115 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 23¢ $301 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 1¢ $10 22d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 98¢ $980 22d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 38¢ $387 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 595 history records