Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2000…3f97 crypto 602 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$201 (+7%) realized +$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate68%411W / 190L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day45.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$95
14 days+$129
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$11
world 31% +$118
other 2% +$14
politics 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +24.4% +12.6% 95% 65% +4.4%
≤30d 71 +18.8% +7.5% 92% 61% +3.3%
≤90d 601 +9.1% -1.3% 68% 53% -4.6%
all 601 +9.1% -1.3% 68% 53% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 53% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 33% -13.7%
15% -19.3% 19% -22.1%
20% -27.2% 11% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses411 / 190
Open positions1
Markets (closed)601 / 602
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day45.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 601 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 84¢ 87¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $6 −$1 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 21 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 21 $52 +$18 +34%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $32 +$2 +7%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $45 +$5 +12%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $23 +$5 +20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $9 +$2 +27%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $90 +$3 +4%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 19 $6 +$2 +39%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -25%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $18 +$1 +7%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $24 +$4 +16%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $19 +$6 +32%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +125%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $16 +$5 +31%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +138%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 17 $6 +$1 +23%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$5 +23%
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $28 +$3 +10%
Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $4 $0 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -16%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $56 +$6 +11%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 84¢ $7 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $5 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $5 2h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $6 23h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 27h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 24¢ $1 29h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 41¢ $2 29h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 61¢ $3 30h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 55¢ $3 30h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 57¢ $1 30h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 58¢ $1 30h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 31h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $6 31h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $1 31h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 31h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $5 31h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 31h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 24¢ $4 31h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 31h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 34¢ $3 44h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 53¢ $5 44h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 45h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 45h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $3 45h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 45h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.09 · official $7.10 (match) · 3500 history records