Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2002…2066 other 247 markets active 3h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$158 (-1%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%21W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$11
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$21
other 25% −$129
sports 19% −$12
crypto 8% −$4
economics 6% +$5
world 4% −$3
culture 4% −$5
tech 3% −$3
finance 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 71 -0.7% -10.2% 1% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 156 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.9%
all 246 -0.7% -10.1% 9% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses21 / 225
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage159d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $81 $0 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $22 $0 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $21 $0 -2%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $19 $0 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $26 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $22 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $27 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $71 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $22 $0 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $31 $0 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $73 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $64 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 05 $22 $0 -1%
Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 04 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $128 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $189 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $119 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $137 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $157 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 2h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $20 3h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $20 7h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 7h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 14h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $28 15h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $28 22h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $21 22h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $21 26h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 27h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 34h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 34h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $20 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $21 46h
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $20 47h
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $20 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $28 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $28 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $19 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $19 2d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $26 2d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $26 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $22 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $27 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 4d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.34 · official $27.34 (match) · 1020 history records