Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2004…cb6f sports 432 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$107 (-1%) realized −$116 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%226W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$102
14 days−$183
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$207
other 3% −$22
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +7.2% -3.1% 61% 58% -5.3%
≤30d 167 -0.1% -9.6% 51% 47% -11.6%
≤90d 424 -3.8% -12.9% 53% 47% -10.6%
all 424 -3.8% -12.9% 53% 47% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 47% -10.6%
10% -21.3% 37% -19.1%
15% -28.9% 29% -26.9%
20% -35.8% 21% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses226 / 198
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions5
Markets (closed)424 / 432
History coverage69d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 75¢ 91¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-4%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 46¢ 20¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 +$8 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 −$37 -74%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $30 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$25 +83%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$19 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$56 +365%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $152 +$89 +58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 +$16 +137%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $15 −$12 -76%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $151 +$23 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $151 +$34 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $131 −$101 -77%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$6 -57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$28 +55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$24 -79%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 −$49 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $40 −$26 -65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $161 +$30 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$11 +52%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $12 +$15 +126%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $60 +$21 +34%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $25 +$16 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12 +$15 +125%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $172 −$99 -57%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $23 +$9 +40%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $201 +$35 +18%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 −$7 -72%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 08 $151 +$22 +15%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $151 +$25 +16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $51 −$38 -75%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $59 −$55 -93%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 07 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$46 -90%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $111 −$7 -6%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $50 +$36 +72%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $23 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 46¢ $20 54m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 17¢ $13 59m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 75¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 62¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $15 3h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 54¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $56 20h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 57¢ $30 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $50 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 8¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $30 25h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 3¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 52¢ $20 28h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 21¢ $15 33h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 89¢ $28 37h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $12 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $50 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 6¢ $4 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 3¢ $15 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 23¢ $15 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 0¢ $0 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 25¢ $15 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 10¢ $21 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $174 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $185 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 18¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $131 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 81¢ $151 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.34 · official $187.34 (match) · 1042 history records