Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2006…74bb crypto 543 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,475 (-4%) realized −$2,467 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate70%379W / 162L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$720
7 days−$651
14 days−$651
30 days−$1,318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -6.0% -15.0% 64% 40% -17.2%
≤30d 73 -11.4% -19.8% 64% 36% -23.0%
≤90d 541 -3.6% -12.8% 70% 38% -14.2%
all 541 -3.6% -12.8% 70% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 38% -14.2%
10% -21.1% 26% -22.4%
15% -28.7% 21% -29.9%
20% -35.7% 18% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$86 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$2,467
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses379 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)541 / 543
History coverage90d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 54¢ 50¢ $59 $54 −$5 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 55¢ 50¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$25 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $222 −$222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $85 +$52 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $141 +$99 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $65 +$45 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $281 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$26 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $85 +$45 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $83 +$67 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $476 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $170 +$230 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $990 −$789 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$64 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $173 +$27 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $473 +$27 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $324 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $175 +$25 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $793 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,267 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$22 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$16 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $187 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $394 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 31 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $61 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $85 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $23 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $141 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $65 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $191 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $90 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $85 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $222 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.68 · official $81.67 (match) · 1938 history records