Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2008…bfa0 crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+4%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate71%41W / 17L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day142.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$89
other 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 45% -4.1%
≤30d 58 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 45% -4.1%
≤90d 58 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 45% -4.1%
all 58 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 45% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 45% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 36% -13.3%
15% -27.0% 17% -21.6%
20% -34.1% 12% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses41 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day142.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $82 −$15 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $83 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $78 +$5 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $77 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $68 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $59 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$29 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $73 −$42 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$22 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $79 +$15 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $71 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $64 +$19 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $36 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $38 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$7 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $100 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $86 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $80 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $80 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $55 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $86 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $78 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records