Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
20 0x2008…10d7 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$13
politics 30% −$11
sports 13% −$47
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 108 -3.4% -12.6% 10% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 6% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 5% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 4% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage138d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $495 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $199 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $245 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $185 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $259 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $447 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $414 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $198 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $439 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $220 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $246 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $710 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 06 $266 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $220 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $271 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $219 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $220 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 17h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $181 29d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $181 31d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $218 31d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $218 32d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 32d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 32d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 32d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $245 33d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $185 33d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $185 33d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $259 33d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $259 33d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $254 33d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $254 34d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $200 34d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 34d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $222 34d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $222 34d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $251 34d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $251 35d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $192 35d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $192 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 322 history records