Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x2009…2e68 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$39
other 26% −$17
world 4% $0
crypto 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% +6.0%
≤30d 14 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% +6.0%
≤90d 14 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% +6.0%
all 14 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 50% +6.0%
10% -30.4% 50% -4.1%
15% -37.1% 36% -13.4%
20% -43.3% 29% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 +$6 +110%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -76%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 −$5 -61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $4 30m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 31m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 32m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 85¢ $6 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 66¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 28h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $40 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.69 · official $9.69 (match) · 26 history records