Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
20 0x200b…65f7 sports 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,508 (-13%) realized −$16,508 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate65%119W / 63L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$682per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$326
7 days−$2,600
14 days−$2,564
30 days−$2,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$5,270
crypto 30% −$4,798
other 6% −$688
weather 5% −$1,724
tech 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -16.8% -24.7% 47% 21% -37.7%
≤30d 29 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 38% -36.3%
≤90d 29 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 38% -36.3%
all 182 -8.9% -17.6% 65% 29% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 29% -19.2%
10% -25.4% 16% -26.9%
15% -32.6% 9% -34.0%
20% -39.3% 4% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$692) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$318 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,508
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses119 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage203d
Avg bet$682
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $50 −$4 -7%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $102 +$68 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $63 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$18 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $32 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$10 +47%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1,170 −$395 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1,101 +$24 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $501 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $501 +$17 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $501 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $510 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 22 $503 −$26 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1,161 −$1,159 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 22 $502 −$212 -42%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $281 +$91 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,274 −$993 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $98 +$16 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 16 $108 −$57 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 16 $467 −$416 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 16 $100 +$102 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 16 $100 +$52 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 15 $373 +$24 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 15 $362 +$11 +3%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 15 $338 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 15 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 15 $200 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 14 $302 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 14 $103 +$47 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 14 $294 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 14 $265 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 14 $214 +$14 +6%
Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT Group A Mar 14 $208 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24? SELL Yes 91¢ $46 23m
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL Eternal Fire 60¢ $170 25m
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 35¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? SELL Yes 50¢ $212 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? SELL Yes 50¢ $100 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? SELL Yes 91¢ $392 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 476 history records