Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$558

7 days−$558

14 days−$558

30 days−$558

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$14,504	$14,969	+$466 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$15,000	$14,929	−$71 (-0%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Under	58¢	0¢	$1,723	$0	−$1,723 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$1,745	−$1,723	-99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 12	$835	+$1,165	+140%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 07	$10,352	+$7,134	+69%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 70% +$395

politics 24% +$7,134

sports 6% −$558

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$14,059	2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$832	2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$15,402	2h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	58¢	$1,745	5h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	41¢	$835	15h
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10,352	584d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+23.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+19.8%	+8.4%	50%	50%	-29.2%
≤30d	2	+19.8%	+8.4%	50%	50%	-29.2%
≤90d	2	+19.8%	+8.4%	50%	50%	-29.2%
all	3	+36.2%	+23.2%	67%	67%	+36.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+23.2%	67%	+36.6%
10% ← realistic here	+11.4%	67%	+23.5%
15%	+0.7%	67%	+11.6%
20%	-9.2%	67%	+0.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.