Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x200f…88dc crypto 374 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%14W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$9
other 24% −$10
politics 16% −$6
weather 10% −$5
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 88 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 313 +0.2% -9.4% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 374 +0.1% -9.4% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses14 / 360
Open positions0
Markets (closed)374 / 374
History coverage95d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 374 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 21? Jun 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? Jun 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $129 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 on June 7? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 6? Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on June 1? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on June May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on June 1? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 31? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 31? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $60 28h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $60 28h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $62 28h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $62 28h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $61 28h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $61 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $62 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $62 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $62 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $62 28h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 878 history records