Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2011…1044 crypto 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-66%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$32
other 35% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-62.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -58.1% -62.1% 20% 20% -88.3%
≤30d 5 -58.1% -62.1% 20% 20% -88.3%
≤90d 5 -58.1% -62.1% 20% 20% -88.3%
all 5 -58.1% -62.1% 20% 20% -88.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.1% 20% -88.3%
10% -65.8% 20% -89.4%
15% -69.1% 20% -90.5%
20% -72.1% 20% -91.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $14 −$11 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records