Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2011…845b weather 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$559 (+13%) realized +$982 · open −$423
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate68%34W / 16L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$128
14 days+$28
30 days+$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$85
world 2% +$27
other 1% $0
politics 1% −$3
finance 0% +$2
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +6.7% -3.5% 83% 22% -0.3%
≤30d 46 +0.4% -9.2% 70% 30% +3.4%
≤90d 50 -1.1% -10.6% 68% 32% +3.5%
all 50 -1.1% -10.6% 68% 32% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 32% +3.5%
10% -19.1% 20% -6.4%
15% -26.9% 12% -15.5%
20% -34.1% 10% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$26 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$982
Unrealized−$423
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses34 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage52d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? Yes 93¢ 26¢ $582 $162 −$420 (-72%)
Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $12 $10 −$3 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? Jun 21 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? Jun 19 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? Jun 19 $161 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 17 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $222 +$48 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $146 +$46 +31%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $205 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $212 +$7 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$8 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $447 +$34 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $64 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$9 +17%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? Jun 13 $90 −$87 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 7? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7? Jun 13 $230 −$230 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $223 +$156 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $249 +$27 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 08 $144 +$18 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $6 +$3 +55%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6? Jun 05 $101 −$50 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 6? Jun 05 $409 +$192 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Jun 04 $62 +$108 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $78 +$234 +298%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 $0 -8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $4 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $54 +$16 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 20 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 10 $4 −$1 -33%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $21 +$6 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 97¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 92¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $114 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 91¢ $135 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 90¢ $123 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? SELL No 35¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? SELL No 35¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? SELL No 35¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? BUY No 28¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? SELL No 96¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? SELL No 96¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? SELL No 89¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $66 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $161 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.73 · official $171.73 (match) · 294 history records