Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:07:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
20 0x2011…a054 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$106 (+61%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+80.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +82.4%
≤30d 7 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +82.4%
≤90d 7 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +82.4%
all 7 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +82.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.5% 100% +82.4%
10% +63.2% 86% +65.0%
15% +47.4% 86% +49.0%
20% +33.0% 57% +34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +102% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +99% · $-wt +102% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 26¢ 26¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $10 +$25 +240%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$7 +48%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$14 +90%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $15 +$15 +97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 +$73 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $23 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $15 23h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $15 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $10 23h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $30 47h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists SELL Yes 10¢ $0 47h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists SELL Yes 53¢ $5 47h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists SELL Yes 53¢ $1 47h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists SELL Yes 53¢ $6 47h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists SELL Yes 55¢ $5 47h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 45¢ $15 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records