Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x2012…85cf politics 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% $0
other 21% $0
world 7% −$1
crypto 7% $0
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage91d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $96 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $96 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $194 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $98 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $98 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $98 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $98 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $95 2h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $96 15h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $96 19d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $96 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $96 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $96 23d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 31d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $96 36d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $96 37d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $96 42d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $96 43d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 46d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 46d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $96 48d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $96 49d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $98 67d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $98 68d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 72d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $98 73d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 77d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 77d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 79d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 80d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 83d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 83d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $98 89d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $15 90d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 90d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $27 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records