Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2013…c8f7 crypto 282 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (187 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$240 (-3%) realized −$240 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate58%163W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day187.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$435
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (187 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 -9.3% -17.9% 58% 31% -14.6%
≤30d 282 -9.3% -17.9% 58% 31% -14.6%
≤90d 282 -9.3% -17.9% 58% 31% -14.6%
all 282 -9.3% -17.9% 58% 31% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover187.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 31% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 19% -22.7%
15% -33.0% 13% -30.2%
20% -39.5% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$240
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses163 / 119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)282 / 282
History coverage4d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day187.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 282 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $46 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $63 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $34 −$13 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $81 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $91 −$20 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $72 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $88 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $61 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $70 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $70 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $15 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 950 history records