Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2015…c715 crypto 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (468 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$194 (-2%) realized −$194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate22%61W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day467.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,394
7 days−$1,645
14 days−$1,643
30 days−$1,643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (468 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -40.5% -46.2% 18% 2% -28.4%
≤30d 280 -33.6% -39.9% 22% 4% -22.9%
≤90d 280 -33.6% -39.9% 22% 4% -22.9%
all 280 -33.6% -39.9% 22% 4% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover467.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.9% 4% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -45.7% 2% -30.3%
15% -50.9% 2% -37.0%
20% -55.7% 2% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses61 / 219
Open positions0
Markets (closed)280 / 193
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day467.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 280 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$12 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$6 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$38 -1280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$8 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records