Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x201a…3418 other 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$351 (-3%) realized −$103 · open −$248
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%85W / 407L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$2,570
crypto 10% −$443
sports 5% −$315
weather 3% −$349
politics 1% +$2
tech 0% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-52.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 -95.9% -96.3% 2% 2% -65.5%
≤30d 248 -85.7% -87.0% 4% 3% -66.1%
≤90d 448 -55.2% -59.5% 15% 12% -61.1%
all 492 -47.7% -52.7% 17% 13% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.7% 13% -44.1%
10% -57.2% 12% -49.5%
15% -61.4% 10% -54.4%
20% -65.2% 9% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$19 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$248
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses85 / 407
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions16
Markets (closed)492 / 275
History coverage110d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 63¢ 95¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $19 $12 −$7 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $19 $3 −$16 (-86%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-96%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 19¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 279 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $26 42m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $45 43m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 43m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $57 51m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $61 52m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $72 16h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 17h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $29 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $47 38h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $119 39h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 41h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 41h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 41h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 41h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 41h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $41 42h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $46 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $45 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $106 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $55 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $86 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $34 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $35 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.11 · official $34.11 (match) · 1188 history records