Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x201c…3418 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,316 (-11%) realized −$1,357 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%49W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$1,369
sports 6% +$35
crypto 4% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.4% +0.8% 83% 67% -12.8%
≤30d 6 +11.4% +0.8% 83% 67% -12.8%
≤90d 43 -70.5% -73.3% 19% 12% -38.6%
all 96 -17.3% -25.2% 51% 41% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 41% -21.2%
10% -32.4% 28% -28.8%
15% -38.9% 19% -35.6%
20% -44.9% 9% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$56 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized−$1,357
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses49 / 47
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage243d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $500 $546 +$46 (+9%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$16 +15%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $507 −$103 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $0 $0 -94%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? May 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Mali vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 28? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-01-15? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? May 15 $28 −$24 -87%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt vs. Zimbabwe end in a draw? May 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-14? May 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2025-12-27? May 15 $1,050 +$23 +2%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? May 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? May 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26? May 15 $1,070 −$70 -6%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? May 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-15? May 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? May 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? May 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23? May 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw? May 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? May 15 $222 −$94 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 3? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06? May 15 $176 −$89 -51%
Will Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-28? May 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? May 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-05? May 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? May 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? May 15 $344 −$170 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 14 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $78 +$12 +15%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $64 +$29 +45%
Will Alanyaspor vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Jan 18 $174 −$7 -4%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $145 +$32 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 15 $88 +$24 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 55¢ $56 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $73 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 25h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $104 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 36¢ $118 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 40h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 40h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $113 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $117 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $404 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $507 32d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $32 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $27 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 38d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 47d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 94d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $78 95d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $93 95d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 95d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $99 124d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 80¢ $128 128d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? SELL Yes 79¢ $128 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.80 · official $600.80 (match) · 252 history records