Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
20 0x201e…d516 crypto 564 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$749 (+1%) realized +$816 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate77%431W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$16
14 days−$11
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$51
sports 8% +$7
other 6% −$121
world 3% +$60
politics 1% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +3.8% -6.1% 87% 31% -9.1%
≤30d 381 +0.7% -8.9% 78% 47% -9.4%
≤90d 535 +3.7% -6.2% 76% 45% -9.6%
all 559 +4.0% -5.9% 77% 44% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 44% -9.4%
10% -14.9% 25% -18.1%
15% -23.1% 14% -26.0%
20% -30.6% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$52 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$816
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses431 / 128
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions5
Markets (closed)559 / 564
History coverage127d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? No 96¢ 96¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 88¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $149 +$11 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $150 +$6 +4%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $123 +$13 +11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $115 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$7 +14%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $200 +$12 +6%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $120 +$7 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$10 +5%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $70 +$11 +16%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Diego Moreira: 1+ goals Jun 15 $150 +$13 +8%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $200 +$15 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $201 +$29 +14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $90 +$8 +8%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $62 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $69 +$36 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$22 +44%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $151 −$48 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$27 +52%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $200 +$11 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $110 +$12 +11%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $80 +$6 +7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $400 +$18 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 46m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 96¢ $200 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $72 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $115 22h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? SELL No 100¢ $117 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? BUY No 93¢ $149 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $150 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 90¢ $123 25h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY No 94¢ $110 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY No 94¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 90¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY No 94¢ $100 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $120 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $100 3d
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Norway 99¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 93¢ $100 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $200 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $70 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $100 4d
Diego Moreira: 1+ goals BUY No 92¢ $150 5d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 92¢ $100 5d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 93¢ $200 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 97¢ $106 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $107 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 98¢ $40 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY No 87¢ $201 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.47 · official $505.47 (match) · 1485 history records