Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x201f…1394 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-9%) realized −$29 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$1
world 10% −$20
sports 9% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.2% +2.4% 50% 50% +0.2%
≤30d 4 +13.2% +2.4% 50% 50% +0.2%
≤90d 5 -9.4% -18.1% 40% 40% -3.9%
all 7 -31.3% -37.8% 29% 29% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 29% -32.2%
10% -43.8% 29% -38.7%
15% -49.2% 29% -44.6%
20% -54.2% 14% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage107d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $192 $196 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $17 −$5 -26%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$6 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$11 +122%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $21 −$20 -92%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $20 −$10 -52%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $17 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 2¢ $1 2h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 14¢ $7 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 20¢ $20 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $8 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $192 2d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 68d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 68d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 68d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $10 106d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 106d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $4 106d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $6 106d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 107d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.97 · official $196.89 (match) · 28 history records