Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
20 0x201f…b8a9 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$180 (+2%) realized +$180 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate66%39W / 20L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$48
crypto 30% +$138
other 27% −$6
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 3 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
all 59 -1.7% -11.1% 66% 2% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -7.3%
10% -19.6% 2% -16.2%
15% -27.3% 2% -24.3%
20% -34.5% 2% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.97 per $1 lost it wins $7.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses39 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage580d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 24 $29 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 22 $28 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Mar 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k? Feb 23 $30 $0 +1%
US recession in 2025? Jan 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 13? Nov 23 $30 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - November 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Nov 11 $150 +$150 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 11? Nov 11 $1,800 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 10 $5 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $650 −$1 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Oct 09 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on July 14? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108000 and $110000 on May 16? May 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 03 $16 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.15 on March 7? Mar 07 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 24 $922 +$50 +6%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by January 31? Feb 01 $8 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $9 $0 +2%
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $2 $0 +6%
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? Dec 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election Dec 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will USR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 05 $1 $0 +9%
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? Dec 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Nov 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jill Stein get >1% of the popular vote? Nov 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Nov 21 $195 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Nov 21 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 21 $197 $0 -0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Nov 21 $196 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? BUY No 99¢ $29 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 98¢ $29 62d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $8 104d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $5 104d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $3 104d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $3 104d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $4 104d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $3 104d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $1 104d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $1 104d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $10 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $4 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $1 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $1 120d
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 165d
US recession in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $30 182d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 212d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 224d
XRP Up or Down - November 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $68 225d
XRP Up or Down - November 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $82 225d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,800 225d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 246d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 147 history records